Abstract

The trend analysis is carried out using the variate difference method. The variate difference method is useful to decide the nature of trend (1st degree or 2nd degree or 3rd degree etc). There are several models to represent a given time series. No formula can directly be used to measure the random component of the series at any point of time. To select an appropriate polynomial for fitting of time series we can make use of variate difference method. This method also enables us to estimate the random component in the series and forecast the future Age Adjusted Rates.